136 Million NFL Wagers Reveal Gap Between Bettor Intentions and Actual Behavior, According to Optimove Insights Report
Regular season routine, hybrid betting behavior, and polarized wager sizes show why sportsbooks should plan the 2026/27 season around behavioral data, not stated intent alone
New York, Aug. 03, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Optimove Insights today released its NFL Betting Intentions vs. Actual Behavior 2025/26 Report, finding that bettors described their overall appetite reasonably well before the season, but often misread how they would actually bet. The data shows that regular-season participation exceeded expectations, live-only betting often became hybrid betting, and wager sizes polarized between a large low-stakes audience and a smaller high-value segment.
Optimove Insights is the analytical and research arm of Optimove, the creator of Positionless Marketing and the #1 Player Engagement Solution for iGaming and sports betting operators. The report compares what NFL bettors said they planned to do before the 2025/26 season with what more than 5 million bettors actually did across 136 million wagers.
The findings have direct implications for sportsbook strategy ahead of the 2026/27 season. Intent data can help operators understand what appeals to bettors, but behavioral data should determine when, where, and how to act. For marketers, the opportunity is to use the NFL calendar to identify durable customers, reactivate lapsed players, and avoid spending offers on bettors who were likely to bet anyway.
Key findings:
- The regular season proved stronger than bettors expected. Seventy-three percent (73%) of survey respondents planned to bet during the regular season, while 87% of actual NFL bettors did. It was the only season phase where actual participation exceeded stated intent.
- Playoff intent was consistently overstated. All other stages attracted fewer bettors than expected: preseason was 33% intent vs. 12% actual, Wild Card was 48% vs. 17%, Divisional Round was 39% vs. 17%, Conference Championship was 27% vs. 13%, and the Super Bowl was 37% vs. 21%.
- Live-only betting gave way to hybrid behavior. Live-only betting fell from 31% of intended behavior to 16% of actual behavior. Meanwhile, bettors using both pre-game and live wagering increased from 21% expected to 32% actual, showing that many live bettors ultimately became hybrid bettors.
- Pre-game remained the widest betting surface. Bettors who expected to use pre-game wagering in some form totaled 69% of intent, while those who actually did totaled 84%. This makes pre-game the natural entry point for acquisition and the foundation for later live engagement.
- Wager sizes formed a barbell, not a middle market. Forty-four percent (44%) of actual bettors typically wagered $10 or less, compared with 17% who expected to do so. At the other end, the $500-plus segment doubled expectations, rising from 4% expected to 8% actual.
- NFL events drove participation spikes, not meaningfully bigger bets. Wild Card weekend produced the highest concentration of bettors at +156% over a non-NFL baseline, while average bet size stayed close to flat throughout the season. Bettor counts swung across a 131-point range, while average bet size moved within 15 points.
- The Super Bowl is best read as a reactivation moment. The Super Bowl drew more bettors than any other single game, but Wild Card weekend was the heaviest betting stretch of the year. The Super Bowl’s cultural relevance makes it the strongest opportunity to bring back bettors who went quiet during earlier playoff rounds.
“The NFL season shows why sportsbooks need to treat intent as a signal, not a plan,” said Pini Yakuel, Founder and CEO of Optimove. “Bettors often know what they are interested in, but the data shows that their real behavior depends on timing, routine, format, and value. The operators who win the 2026/27 season will be the ones that act on what bettors actually do, not just what they say they will do. That is what Positionless Marketing makes possible: giving marketers the ability to turn each signal into the right action before the moment closes.”
The report compares two datasets covering the 2025/26 NFL season. Stated intentions come from the Optimove Insights 2025/26 Consumer Report on NFL Wagering Intentions, based on 425 U.S. adults who wager on NFL football.
The survey was conducted in August 2025 among respondents aged 21 or older with household incomes of at least $75,000. Actual behavior comes from an Optimove Insights analysis of 136,211,778 wagers placed by 5,047,205 NFL bettors from the preseason through the Super Bowl. The two datasets do not represent the same individuals.
The full report is available at https://www.optimove.com/resources/reports/nfl-betting-intentions-actual-behavior-2025-26
About Optimove
Optimove is the creator of Positionless Marketing and the #1 Player Engagement Solution for iGaming and sports betting operators. Positionless Marketing frees marketing teams from the limitations of fixed roles, giving every marketer the power to execute any marketing task instantly and independently. Positionless Marketing has been proven to improve campaign efficiency by 88%, allowing marketing teams to create more personalized engagement with existing customers.
For two years running, Optimove has been positioned as a Visionary in Gartner’s Magic Quadrant for Multichannel Marketing Hubs, recognized for its AI-driven decisioning, prescriptive insights, and proven ability to orchestrate thousands of personalized campaigns in real time across channels.
Its Positionless Marketing Platform includes Optimove Engage and Orchestrate for cross-channel campaign decisioning and orchestration; Optimove Personalize, a digital personalization engine; and Optimove Gamify, a loyalty and gamification platform.
All are powered by Optimove AI, the marketing AI suite that brings AI everywhere marketers work. Inside the platform through Native AI agents for decisioning, analysis, and creation, outside it to external AI tools like Claude and ChatGPT through the Optimove MCP, and into custom-built applications on top of the platform through Optimove Custom Apps. Optimove has embedded AI in its platform since 2012, paving the way for Positionless Marketing.
Today, its comprehensive AI-powered suite is at the leading edge of empowering marketers to streamline workflows from Insight to Creation and through Optimization. Optimove provides industry-specific and use-case solutions for leading consumer brands globally.
About Optimove Insights
Optimove Insights is the analytical and research arm of Optimove, dedicated to providing valuable industry insights and data-driven research to empower B2C businesses.
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Carolina Lopez Optimove 2129201470 carolina_l@optimove.com
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